BTC is heading into its strongest seasonal stretch. But flipping $125K into support and getting help from Q4 macro tailwinds are key for a shot at $200k. And that’s not just random. Fed FOMC easing cycles have consistently fueled risk assets, and BTC has been a major beneficiary as investors expect a 25 bps rate cut in the upcoming FOMC meeting.
If the Fed delivers, prior Q4 flows suggest a push toward $200K by year-end. That said, seasonality could limit near-term upside. August and September have been dead zones for BTC, averaging flat to negative returns. If that trend holds, a $125K breakout in the next 60 days might be premature.
Historically, October–November have been BTC’s highest-beta window, averaging a combined return of +67.91%. Typically, it’s where impulse rallies get legs. So if the Fed cuts in September and BTC taps $125K as resistance, it would align almost perfectly with Bitcoin’s strongest historical momentum phase, setting the stage for a potential breakout into price discovery.
Between now and then, if BTC wants to replay its typical Q4 expansion, it’ll need to flip the $125k level into support and get confirmation on the liquidity shift. As of now, at the time of writing this article, BTC is being trade around $116.5k and has seen a growth of 0.47% in the last 24 hours and stands at $2.32 Trillion.