A $440 billion stimulus, Fed rate cuts, and controlled inflation have fueled bullish short-term positioning, pushing crypto market cap. As recently President Trump made an announcement about a $2,000 “tariff dividend” for Americans, excluding higher-income brackets.
From a macro perspective, this move isn’t random. The stimulus check lands in a relatively stable spot, supported by “softer-than-expected” data, such as inflation coming down despite tariffs. And with two rate cuts already in place, and the liquidity backdrop becomes even more supportive for risk assets. Bottom line, crypto investors are pricing in that the stimulus will fuel capital flows.
As per the data, there are roughly 220 million U.S. adults who meet the income criteria, with the top 15% excluded as “high income”. That works out to roughly 220 million × $2,000, or $440 billion in payouts.
As noted by the Kobeissi Letter, the influx of liquidity also sparked a massive inflation cycle, sending the U.S. inflation index to 9% by June 2022, The 2020 stimulus cycle later played out during the 2022 bear market.
and a stimulus of this size could add more strain. Hence, short-term positioning looks bullish, but rising inflation and mounting debt could spark a 2022-style crypto pullback heading into 2026.