BTC recently has gained a significant attraction among investors despite the current global conflicts and higher energy and it seems to be even more interesting as of some recent reports about the US considering to finally bring the Clarity Act or even a US strategic BTC Reserve. According to reports, Open Interest (OI) has jumped to early February levels, crossing $55B, the biggest spike since the US Iran conflict started. But back in February, BTC was trading above $75k, while this time it’s still struggling below that key resistance.
However, the charts show, Bitcoin hasn’t entered that bottoming box yet, which suggests the market may still be in a transitional phase rather than a confirmed cycle bottom. Because of that, some are eyeing Q4 2026 as a potential bottoming window, with downside scenarios clustering around the $40k region. However, “smart money” doesn’t seem to fully align with that narrative, suggesting traders are positioning more dynamically rather than strictly following cycle-driven setups.
In short, the current setup around Bitcoin’s $75k resistance splits the market. Naturally, this raises the question: Are these mixed signals setting BTC up for a volatility loop, reinforcing that a clean bottom is still premature? Or is this divergence setting up a bear trap instead? At the same time, Bitcoin’s long-term holder supply continues to climb steadily. As the chart shows, roughly 200,000 BTC have accumulated in this cohort this month alone. This creates a clear split in sentiment: fear dominates short-term price action, while long-term holders continue to accumulate into weakness.
However, as weak hands exit and overheated derivatives cool down, bearish on chain signals continue to keep retail cautious, while smart money steadily accumulates. Bitcoin now appears to be forming a classic bear trap structure, which could set the stage for a breakout above $75k in coming weeks, strengthening the broader bottom thesis. As of now, at the time of writing this article, BTC is being trade around $74,690 and has seen a jump of 5.7% in its price over the past 24 hours and over 8.93% over the past week, and stands at a market capitalization of $1.495 Trillion.